Zawahiri's Videotape: Analysis 1

Here is a fantastic Stratfor article about the new Ayman Al-Zawahiri Al Qaeda propaganda tape. It is a good read!

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=282167&selected=Analyses

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE ARTICLE AND MY OWN THOUGHTS

His statement was unusual in that it was released by Al Jazeera rather than by al Qaeda's As-Sahab media production house -- although As-Sahab posted banner ads on jihadist Web sites and in jihadist chat rooms Dec. 18 announcing the impending release of the video. Prior to the Jan. 13 airstrike on an alleged al Qaeda safe-house in Damadola, Pakistan, al Qaeda delivered several statements to Al Jazeera by a system of couriers. This system could have been compromised and could have led to the airstrike, which killed several prominent al Qaeda leaders. Most of the statements and previews from al Qaeda's top leaders that came after the Damadola strike were released online via As-Sahab rather than by Al Jazeera.

So it seems to me that Al-Zawahiri's taking a big risk again by releasing videotapes through Al-Jazeera and not As-Sahab. Even so, when he was releasing videotapes through the internet we're still on his ass. (The October 30th strike in Pakistan) Either way, this year it looks like we finally cornered him in a certain section of Pakistan. We've come closer than ever to killing him this year than any other year since 9/11. He has been extremely vulnerable the last 12 months and his craving for attention seems to be still strong. I mean, come on! 17 new videos in 1 year.....I would have been dumbfounded if US intelligence didn't have at least some info on him!! My feeling is I wouldn't be surprised if he was killed or captured sometime in early 2007. And it would be his own damn fault for not knowing when to shut the fuck up! So...PLEASE PLEASE...keep running your ugly mouth, Zawahiri! We love to hear what you have to say.